The SF Chronicle speculated today about Arnold Schwarzenegger challenging Barbara Boxer in 2010. This idea will be catnip for the cables but the viability of such a run is slim. He’s more likely to end up in the Obama administration than in the Senate. Consider this:
1) Schwarzenegger is equally disliked by both Republicans and Democrats. The Chronicle reports that Schwarzenegger’s ”dream of becoming the first ‘post-partisan’ governor has finally come true – he’s equally disliked by Republicans and Democrats. ‘He’s reached his goal. Both sides view him the same way,’ said Mark DiCamillo of the Field Poll. ‘Negatively.’”
2) Schwarzenegger isn’t the only option for GOP voters, many of whom are upset that his recent budget included a $12 billion tax increase. With “real conservatives” to choose from like Irvine Assemblyman Chuck DeVore and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, the tax hike would put Schwarzenegger on defense and force him to run to the right in a primary.
3) The President’s appearance with the Governor last week wouldn’t have taken place if political red alarms were going off about Boxer’s re-elect prospects. (She has a double-digit lead over Schwarzenegger in a possible head-to-head.) Schwarzenegger’s next step is more likely some kind of White House appointment – Obama gets a pragmatist in his inner circle and scores bipartisan points for having a Republican in the cabinet. And if the landscape goes south on Boxer, Schwarzenegger would be locked in a Democratic cabinet which would further complicate his ability to secure the GOP senate nomination.
UPDATE: Politico’s Jonathan Martin also speculated that Schwarzenegger might be angling for a cabinet position in his story last week about Obama and Schwarzenegger appearing together:
Furthermore, California term limits prevent the governor from running for reelection, and he can’t run for president in 2012 because of his foreign birth. So some analysts believe his political future is brighter as a potential figure in the Obama administration than in the GOP.
“His relationship with the party base has so soured that appearing with a Democratic president is not going to make much difference,” said Schnur.
Filed under: 2010 Campaign, Obama Administration, Politics | Tagged: Phil Singer, Politico, Jonathan Martin, Democrats, Obama, Barack Obama, 2010, Republicans, White House, 2010 Campaign, 2010 senate race, 2010 Senate, Obama Administration, President Obama, President Barack Obama, Schwarzenegger, Arnold Schwarzenegger, SF Chronicle, San Francisco Chronicle, Carly Fiorina, Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, Chuck DeVore, Field Poll, Mark DiCamillo, Terminator, Cabinet, Barbara Boxer, Boxer
[...] — as something he’s just not interested in, but recently he appeared to soften his words.”However, Phil Singer notes President Obama’s appearance with the Schwarzenegger last week “wouldn’t have taken place if [...]
[...] — as something he’s just not interested in, but recently he appeared to soften his words.”However, Phil Singer notes President Obama’s appearance with the Schwarzenegger last week “wouldn’t have taken place if [...]
[...] Senate Doubtful For Arnold Schwarzenegger Click Here for the News America Now home page and the latest news [...]
I can tell that this is not the first time at all that you mention the topic. Why have you chosen it again?